Updated Odds

Last January, Sportsbooks.com posted odds on candidates for the next UNSG. While an amusing exercise, it’s doubtful an accurate measure of the campaigns. Nonetheless, a regular reader (thanks, dracobs!) commented that an updated look at the odds might be of interest.

  Candidate Jan. 23rd Jun. 28th
Ban Ki Moon 5-2
Surakiart Sathirathai 5-2 5-2
Jayantha Dhanapala 7-2
Anwar Ibrahim 15-1 8-1
Bill Clinton 5-2 10-1
Aleksander Kwasniewski 6-1 10-1
Ashraf Ghani 5-1 12-1
Aung San Suu Kyi 12-1 12-1
Vaclav Havel  25-1 25-1
Nelson Mandela  25-1 25-1
 

Interestingly, neither Ban nor Dhanapala made the list in January, despite existing widespread expectations that they would be candidates and now being frontrunners.

Clinton and Kwasniewski both dropped significantly in their chances of getting appointed, according to Sportsbook.

The only gainer is former Deputy Premier Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, who has been approached and asked to run, but has not yet decided.

  Candidate FP’s Odds
Jayantha Dhanapala 6-1
Kemal Dervis 12-1
Ban Ki Moon 15-2
Surakiart Sathirathai 15-2
Aleksander Kwasniewski 18-1
Vaira Vike-Freiberga 20-1
Bill Clinton 1000-1
 

Though it was issued prior to Shashi Tharoor‘s nomination and the increased attention to other Asian “sleeper candidates” such as Anwar, Foreign Policy played oddsmaker itself a few weeks ago.

(Sadly, Aung San Suu Kyi did not make FP’s list. But perhaps that has something to do with the UN’s member states inability to negotiate her release from house arrest in Burma, let alone give her a job in New York?)

Whichever odds you go with, the Security Council is expected to come up with its short list by the end of July, so now might be the time to get your bets in. As Alex Czajkowski, Marketing Director with Sportsbook.com points out,

“Everybody bets, so, with Clinton moving down in the odds and the race now wide open, it’s a great time to gamble on who is most likely to lead the UN
into the next decade.”

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