South Korean candidate Ban Ki Moon reportedly secured stronger support in this morning’s second straw poll for UNSG. Tharoor, Surakiart and Zeid followed respectively, and Dhanapala again finished in last place, again the only candidate to get more “discouragements” than “encouragements.”
| Encourage | Discourage | No Opinion | |
| Ban | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Tharoor | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Surakiart | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Zeid | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Dhanapala | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Zeid‘s fourth place showing is a surprise, considering the reception his nomination received from diplomats when announced last week. Davide Barretta pointed out yesterday many of Zeid’s strengths as a candidate perfectly suited to slip past the others and rise to the top of the list. Among them are his perception as “technically Asian, but foreign to the intense regional rivalries.” A expert on the UN suggested to me that the showing may be related to whether other governments do indeed accept Zeid as Asian. As with Dhanapala, his age may also be a factor – at 42, he would be the youngest UNSG if selected.
Tharoor picked up one more vote… in the discouragement column. He maintained his second-place finish with 10 encouraging votes.
In contrast, Surakiart‘s picked up two more encouragements, giving him the “magic number” of 9 votes necessary to win (if he received no vetos). Given this, we can well expect to see Surakiart remain in the race. Could he be wooing the NAM summit in Havana? Even so, could this gain be a false impression, particularly after PM Thaksin’s remarks after speaking with UK and French diplomats at the ASEM summit?
Sri Lanka’s Dhanapala, on the other hand, had three votes – two formerly encouraging, one discouraging – shift over to the “no opinion” column. How to read this? Either he is no longer seen as a serious candidate either way or he’s the archtypical “compromise” candidate. Against the other candidates’ numbers, however, the former seems most likely. The fact that he is 67 – two years older than the official UN retirement age – has been cited as one reason for his poor showings.
Ban’s tally again places him in the unique position of being the one candidate who can claim with certainty permanent member support – 4 of the five in fact. Speculation again will arise as to whether that lone dissenter is Japan (without a veto) or China, whose veto could sink Ban’s candidacy despite his otherwise unanimous support. Or could it be another government entirely?
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