A good deal of speculation following the two straw polls has surrounded the lone discouraging vote for Ban Ki Moon.
With one discouraging vote, the concern is that Ban’s candidacy could yet be sunk by a veto from one of the permanent members – either China, or as has arisen recently, perhaps the United States.
What may be being overlooked, however, is who is encouraging Ban’s candidacy…and one possibility – suggested by a source close to this blog – is intriguing.
Removing one of the permanent members from the list of encouraging governments leaves us with the surprising possibility that Ban has secured the support of all five Security Council members who are also members of the Non-Aligned Movement – Congo, Ghana, Peru, Qatar, Tanzania. 
If this is true, it means that while Surakiart, Dhanapala, Zeid and Tharoor’s PM were lobbying hard in Havana, Ban had already locked up the votes from those members who really count in this regard.
What if Ban didn’t lock up this support, and that lone discouraging vote came from a NAM member? Well… that leaves only one other conclusion.
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